On Tuesday 11 February the AGM of the Global Campaign on Military Spending UK took place, hearing from Prof Ron Smith from Birkbeck, Univeristy of London on the future of military spending in the UK.
Prof Smith highlighted the ongoing tensions between the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence on the issue of increasing military spending, saying that throughout history those in the position of Chancellor have been unlikely allies of those who wish to cut military spending.
During an exposition of the history of military spending, Prof Smith outlined how previous increases in military spending have largely been funded by increasing the national debt – something which may well prove harder in future as borrow costs rise.
The Chancellors new fiscal rules, along with Labour manifesto commitments not to increase the main revenue raising taxes, means that any increases in military spending will likely lead to significant cuts to all other spending departments.
On the Strategy Defence Review, which is yet to be completed, Prof Smith outlined the parameters which include a commitment to the Trident nuclear weapons system, NATO, supporting Ukraine and maintaining various presences around the world. Within these parameters Prof Smith wondered whether this would be affordable.
There was also consideration that previous Defence Reviews have been taken over by unforeseen events, from the Falklands invasion to Brexit, Afghanistan to Covid. There is a possibility that election of Donald Trump as US President may do the same this time.
