Dr Stuart Parkinson is Chair of the UK branch of the Global Campaign on Military Spending (GCOMS-UK) and Executive Director of Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR).
Summary
In the government’s Spring Statement, the UK’s core military spending is planned to rise to £62.2bn for the coming financial year, 2025-26 – following the announcement of a further £2.2bn spending. This is a rise of £8.3bn over the previous two years – considerably above inflation. This is in line with the government’s recent announcement for military spending to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28. This spending increase is once again being paid for by huge cuts to the foreign aid budget. In 2023-24, core military spending was approximately 3.5 times the size of the aid budget. By 2027-28, it will be about 10 times as large. Meanwhile, the UK’s welfare budget is also facing major cuts.
In more depth…
The Spring Statement 2025 (SS25)1 is the Labour government’s first detailed financial assessment since the Prime Minister announced that military spending will rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027-28, with “an ambition to reach 3% in the next Parliament, as economic and fiscal conditions allow”2. SS25 revealed that, for the coming financial year, 2025-26, core military expenditure3 will be £62.2bn4. This will include extra spending of £2.2bn, not previously announced5. This means that military spending will have risen by £8.3bn over the previous two years – considerably above inflation – as shown in Table 1.
Table 1 – A comparison of core military spending for 2023-26 as stated in Spring Statement 2025 (SS25)6 and Autumn Budget 2024 (AB24)7
| £bn(current prices)8 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | Increase from 2023-24 to 2025-26 |
| SS25 | 53.9 | 60.3 | 62.2 | 8.3 |
| AB24 | 53.9 | 56.9 | 59.8 | 5.9 |
| Change from AB24 to SS25 | 0.0 | +3.4 | +2.4 |
The UK was the sixth largest military spender in the world in 20239 – and its position may rise following this announcement.
SS25 does not provide a breakdown of how the extra £2.2bn will be spent, but it especially highlights the planned introduction of ‘directed energy weapons’ (e.g. laser weapons), the development of military systems using autonomous and AI technologies, involvement in NATO military exercises, and the refurbishment of housing for military families10. However, it is likely that a large fraction of this new funding will be spent on Britain’s nuclear weapons system, in particular the programme for replacing the Dreadnought submarines, which the government’s spending watchdog has criticised for running considerably over-budget.11
SS25 confirmed that the increase in military spending would be paid for by huge cuts to the foreign aid budget (known as ‘Official Development Assistance’ or ODA). This decision has been widely condemned12, including by GCOMS-UK13. While not laying out detailed departmental spending figures beyond 2025-26, SS25 did reveal the planned size of core military spending rises for the five years up to 2029-30, and the corresponding cuts to aid budget during this period14. Using these figures, we were able to estimate the change in the ratio of core military spending to aid spending. In 2023-24, core military spending was approximately 3.5 times the size of the aid budget. By 2027-28, it will be about 10 times as large. This represents a truly shocking transformation of the UK’s role in the world. With international progress to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals well off-target, the timing of this change is especially devastating for the world’s poorest.
Similar comparisons can be made with other areas of government spending. For example:
- In 2025-26, core military spending will be 4.4 times the budget of the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero – which is responsible for much of the government spending on reducing carbon emissions. While this level is an improvement on previous years, it still falls far short of adequate action. With Britain having fallen behind on its efforts to tackle the climate crisis, and global temperature rise currently projected to breach the Paris target of 1.5C by 203115, this is an area which requires much greater priority. In recent months, there have been several announcements on new funding and projects, but climate scientists and campaigners have questioned whether some of them will actually be effective16. The government does not have a spending target for climate action so it continues to be difficult to judge how far short expenditure is in this area.
- In 2025-26, core military spending will be 8.3 times the budget of the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – which includes spending on nature protection. With biodiversity loss at critical levels, this is an area that also needs much greater funding.17
Another widespread criticism of SS25 has been its inclusion of £4.8bn of cuts to those in Britain in receipt of welfare payments. Three million people are expected to lose income due to these cuts.18
SS25 also confirmed the government’s continuing commitment to provide £3bn per year indefinitely for military assistance to Ukraine19. Statements by the previous government revealed that the UK was spending nearly nine times as much on military support than on humanitarian aid to the country.20
One final point – the core figures do not include some other areas of military spending, in particular, veterans’ pensions, which are not directly related to current government policies on the armed forces. SS25 did not provide an updated estimate of this total spending – if all these other categories are included – but AB24 stated it would be £83bn in 2025-26.21 Together with the newly announced spending above, we estimate this total would rise to approximately £85bn.
In summary, the Spring Statement has confirmed that the government is sacrificing the poorest and most vulnerable, both internationally and in the UK, in pursuit of major military expansion. The failure to appreciate how such cuts undermine security at the household and community level is especially tragic.
Dr Stuart Parkinson is a member of the Steering Group of GCOMS-UK, and Executive Director of Scientists for Global Responsibility.
References
- HM Treasury (2025). Spring Statement 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document
↩︎ - This policy was reiterated on p.17 of HM Treasury (2025) – as note 1.
↩︎ - Core military spending is expenditure by the Ministry of Defence under its ‘resource’ and ‘capital’ budgets. It excludes certain other military budget lines as discussed in the main text.
↩︎ - All figures in this briefing are calculated from those on pp.43-44 of HM Treasury (2025) – except where otherwise indicated.
↩︎ - p.17 of: HM Treasury (2025) – as note 1.
↩︎ - As note 4. ↩︎
- pp.35-38 of: HM Treasury (2024). Autumn Budget 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2024
↩︎ - ‘Current prices’ means that there has been no adjustment for inflation.
↩︎ - SIPRI (2024). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023. April. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023
↩︎ - p.18 of: HM Treasury (2025) – as note 1.
↩︎ - National Audit Office (2023). Ministry of Defence: The Equipment Plan 2023 to 2033. December. https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/equipment-plan-2023-to-2033/
↩︎ - The Guardian (2025). Starmer’s cuts to UK aid budget are ‘cruel and shameful’, say experts. 25 February. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/feb/25/starmer-cuts-to-uk-aid-budget-defence-trump-cruel-and-shameful-say-experts
↩︎ - GCOMS-UK (2025). Campaigners Call for a ‘Rethink’ of Military Spending Announcement. 25 February. https://demilitarize.org.uk/campaigners-call-for-a-rethink-of-military-spending-announcement/
↩︎ - p.20 of: HM Treasury (2025) – as note 1.
↩︎ - Climate Change Tracker (2024). Indicators of Global Climate Change. 29 October. https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc
↩︎ - The Guardian (2024). Climate scientists call on Labour to pause £1bn plans for carbon capture. 25 September. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/25/climate-scientists-call-on-labour-to-pause-1bn-investment-plans-carbon-capture-blue-hydrogen
Stop Sizewell C (2025). Redirect Sizewell C funding to the Warm Homes Plan, say campaigners. 21 March. https://stopsizewellc.org/sizewellcvswarmhomes/
Zero Hour (2025). A false choice in the Spring Statement: Nature vs. Growth. 26 March. https://www.zerohour.uk/springstatement/
↩︎ - Zero Hour (2025) – as note 16.
↩︎ - The Guardian (2025). More than 3m UK households to lose out from benefits cuts. 26 March. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/26/more-than-3m-britons-to-lose-out-from-benefits-cuts
↩︎ - p.17 of: HM Treasury (2025) – as note 1.
↩︎ - GCOMS-UK (2024). Spring budget 24: Military spending continues to grow at the expense of climate funds and overseas aid. 7 March. https://demilitarize.org.uk/spring-budget-24-military-spending-continues-to-grow-at-the-expense-of-climate-funds-and-overseas-aid/
↩︎ - p.164 of: HM Treasury (2024) – as note 7.
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