GCOMS Budget Briefing on the Autumn Statement

This short briefing examines UK government spending presented by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, in his Autumn Statement 2022 (AS-22).¹

Summary

Probably the main story of AS-22 – in terms of military spending – is that there isn’t actually a great deal to report. Despite the bluster of the Truss government’s promise to set military spending on a path to 3% of GDP, this year’s core military budget (spending by the Ministry of Defence, MOD) has increased at only a slightly faster rate than consumer inflation. This means, for example, that the ratios between it and the budgets for the FCDO (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office) and Defra (Dept of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) have widened a little further. Unfortunately – and possibly intentionally – there aren’t specific figures for spending on international aid or climate change in the AS-22, so it’s a struggle to say anything else more concrete. And it looks like the big decisions on above-inflation increases in military spending in future years are being left to the Spring Statement.

Military spending currently climbing faster than inflation, with further increases yet to be announced

The latest figures on UK government spending ² show the following on military issues:

• Core military spending³ rose from £45.9bn in 2021/22 to £51.6bn in 2022/23, an increase of £5.7bn or 12.4%.⁴ This rate of increase is slightly higher than inflation for consumers.
• The projected total for core military spending over four years (2021/22 to 2024/25) has risen from £190.9bn to £194.5bn.
• The projected annual totals for 2023/24 and 2024/25 are currently lower than that for 2022/23 – but are likely to be revised upwards in the Spring Statement 2023 once the current review of the 2021 Integrated Review has been completed.⁵ This latest review is intended to take account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• The government is committed to spending a minimum of 2% of GDP on the military over the current parliament, i.e. up to 2025.⁶ This policy is, as yet, unchanged from the policy followed under Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Military spending climbing faster than key spending on international development and Climate Action

Some comparisons with other areas of government spending:

• In the Spring Statement 2022 (SS-22), the ratio of core military spending to the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for the year 2022/23 stood at 4.3 times. This has now risen to 4.8.
• A specific comparison between military spending and total spending on international development aid is not available due to the limited detail provided in AS-22. The document simply states that the policy instigated during the COVID-19 pandemic – that the aid target is to be 0.5% of Gross National Income (GNI) – rather than the legally mandated 0.7% – is to continue for the foreseeable future.⁷
• In SS-22, the ratio of core military spending to the budget of the Dept of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for the year 2022/23 stood at 7.3 times. This has now risen to 7.8.
• A comparison between military spending and total public spending on the Net Zero Strategy – the main government programme for reducing carbon emissions – is not available due to the limited detail provided in AS-22.
• Only one specific figure is provided in AS-22 related to current spending on the Net Zero Strategy: that £6.6bn is due to be spent by the government during this parliament on energy efficiency measures for households, businesses and the public sector.⁸ This is not new money and is the same figure as given by Kwarteng back in March and remains significantly below the £9.2bn promised in the Conservative 2019 manifesto.⁹

Dr Stuart Parkinson is Co-chair of GCOMS-UK and Executive Director of Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR).

1. HM Treasury (2022a). Autumn Statement. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-statement-2022-documents
2. All figures are given in ‘current prices’, i.e. they have not been adjusted for inflation.
3. The term ‘core military spending’ is used to cover annual spending by the UK Ministry of Defence, and does not include military pensions or other smaller budgets used for military purposes.
4. Except where indicated, all figures in this briefing are calculated from Tables 2.1 and 2.2 in HM Treasury (2022a) and their equivalent in Tables 1.4 and 1.5 of HM Treasury (2022b). Spring Statement.
5. P.29 of HM Treasury (2022a). Autumn Statement.
6. P.29 of HM Treasury (2022a). Autumn Statement.
7. P.29 of HM Treasury (2022a). Autumn Statement.
8. P.48 of HM Treasury (2022a). Autumn Statement.
9. P.55 of Conservative Manifesto 2019